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World War Within Twenty Years (2003-2023)
PETER CORIN – 24/04/03
It is a common assumption by people alive today, that world war cannot happen again, certainly not within our lifetimes. Tom Clancy is one of my favorite authors for the simple reason that he can
create feasible scenarios of major war.
He, unlike me, writes in fiction. So I will now attempt to provide a convincing worst-case scenario of what may happen in the next twenty years, or less.
2003 – 2010
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It is worth briefly explaining U.S intentions during this period. Ever since the end of the cold war, the U.S has been losing power. It has tried many times to place sanctions on various countries, but even it’s own multi-nationals don’t listen to the government. Militarily, they are almost as strong as they have ever been, but in the militarily quiet global environment, this brought them little advantage. So the solution? Create an environment where they can use their military strength to regain their position as the number one super power.
The year is 2003, we have just seen the conclusion of war in Iraq, won by the “Coalition of the Willing’, led by the U.S and supported by England and Australia. We are now seeing the U.S accuse Syria of various crimes. If the U.S can successfully rebuild Iraq, they will undoubtedly attack Syria, and may even have international support for it.
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Syria could be defeated by the end of 2003. Victory will surely result in more Middle Eastern countries being targeted. The possible list is almost endless, Iran, Jordan etc. This will continue until all countries in the Middle East either support the U.S or are controlled by the U.S.
During all this time, North Korea will be a talking point. The U.S will try and play it down, as they are now, but gradually, the real threat that this communist state poses will be realized.
Many people, including myself, have wondered why the U.S is focusing so much on Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction (that they deny having) when North Korea openly admit that they have nuclear
capabilities. The answer for many was that the war was about oil, and North Korea didn’t have oil. I think this answer is simplistic and ignorant.
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However, my answer is also simplistic. They are scared. This is a conclusion that no one wants to draw, because it could cause mass hysteria. The fact is that North Korea has (Time Magazine, Jan 2003) 1.1 million active troops, 4.7 million reserve troops, 3500 tanks, 10,400 pieces of artillery, 26 submarines and 621 combat aircraft. Compare some of those stats to what we know Iraq had, and how easy did they find Iraq to beat? Any war with North Korea, fought thousands of km from the U.S would be far from simple, and victory far from secure.
So the U.S will not attack North Korea. So the solution? Some would suggest diplomatic solutions. But really, how often do we see successful diplomatic solutions with communist countries, especially when the U.S is involved. Most likely is that
they will turn to other matters, continue their war in the middle east and forget about the problem of Nuclear armed North Korea, until it’s too late.
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2011 – 2023
This next phase could occur earlier, but often international relations spread widely over time. So wide in fact that we may not notice what’s happening. Like the frog, slowly being boiled as the heat rises. Also there is an added incentive for North Korea to bide their time, as constantly, they will be building their military strength and
strategy.
When the situation explodes, it will not be from the U.S directly. It has been estimated that a three-stage rocket capable of carrying nuclear warheads to the continental U.S will not be developed in Korea till 2015. However, rockets to attack South Korea and Japan have been developed. It is from Japan that the war will begin.
It’s ironic that for America, WWII began when Japan attacked Pearl Harbor and WWIII will begin for America when North Korea attacks Japan, Americas biggest ally in Asia.
When thousands of Japanese citizens lie dead on the streets of their major cities, the U.S and the rest of the world will be forced to react. It is extremely interesting to think about who will be on which side.
Obviously Japan will join the U.S. However the rest of Asia is less certain. I think it unlikely the semi-communist China will support an attack on communist North Korea. So they may abstain, or may even join North Korea. If China joined North Korea (and the fringe countries such as Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan would follow) then the outcome of WWIII would be far from certain. However I think this unlikely.
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So we see North Korea (and any remnants of rogue states in the middle east) against the U.S and a much larger “Coalition of the Willing.” With China not allowing any U.S troops on it’s land, and not allowing planes in its airspace, that war would be extremely difficult. China and South Korea are North Koreas only neighbors. So we see the importance of American military power in South Korea. Incidentally, recent feelings in South Korea have been more pro-North Korea than pro-US because of possible attempts at reunification.
So in my mind. Unless the world does something to stop the silent military buildup (SMB) in Korea, we may see WWIII within twenty years. And in my view, the result would be far from certain.
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